Stepped up trade activity will benefit participants in the Mexican freight transport market in 2015.
An increase in trade between North American NAFTA partners in overall freight transport rose to record levels during the last quarter of 2014. According the figures recently released by the United States Department of Transportation (DOT), during the month of October alone the value of commercial products shipped within the North American free trade zone totaled approximately US $108 billion. In October, the amount of ground freight movement increased by a bit over seven percent year over year, while increases were recorded for shipments moving by both rail and air. The numbers were 2.4% and 4.9%, respectively. Since the US economy is principal driver of the North American economy as a whole, a projected increase in gross domestic product (GDP) over last year’s 2.2% growth augurs well for growth within the Mexican freight transport market. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) is predicting that the US will end 2015 with an annual rate of increase in GDP of 3.2%. This is a full point increase over gains registered in 2014.
In addition to US GDP growth, economists at Fast Market Research, predict that the Mexican economy will grow at a 3.7% clip annually in 2015. The forward movement of both the economies of the US and Mexico will have the combined effect of boosting the Mexican freight transport market. Mexico is the second largest shipper of goods to the United States. It is surpassed in this measure by the US’ neighbor to the north, Canada. In 2015, not only will more freight traverse the United States, Mexico and Canada in terms of volume and value, but, also, Mexico’s domestic economic growth will further affect the Mexican frieght in a positive manner. Both private consumption of goods and consumer confidence in Mexico is on the rise, as is the purchasing power of the growing number of citizens joining the Mexican middle-class.
Economists at Fast Market Research predict the following with respect to the 2015 Mexican freight transport market:
- Road freight tonnage is forecast to grow at a rate of 2.6%
- Movement by Mexican rail is predicted to increase by 3.5%
- Shipments by air will grow by 2.6% over numbers registered in 2014
With respect to ocean shipments, Fast Market Research economists point out that the Port of Manzanillo, in particular, is projected to handle 32.8 million tons of cargo. This represents a significant 7.2% increase over tonnage that transited the port during the last calendar year.
In the opinion of the researchers, the US international shipping firm, FDX, stands to make great gains as a result of the growth that will take place in the Mexican freight transport market in 2015. Given projections of healthy growth during the year in the domestic Mexican market, the company has positioned itself propitiously through a well-defined ground and air expansion plan that was implemented during 2013 and 2014.
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